As the threat of a Taiwan contingency looms larger, the U.S. and its allies face a clear strategic imperative: We must build and sustain a strategic, agile, and resilient industrial base ecosystem to deter Chinese aggression before a shot is fired.
“China continues to pursue unprecedented military modernization and increasingly aggressive behavior that threatens the U.S. homeland, our allies, and our partners. China is outpacing the U.S. in testing not only these critical technologies but also technologies from across their military industrial base.” ADM Samuel Paparo, INDOPACOM Commander
Welcome to the era of the Deterrence Industrial Base—a 21st-century construct that fuses speed, scale, software, and steel to project credible combat power at scale across the Indo-Pacific.
Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan requires a multifaceted approach:
Integrating exquisite major weapon systems with mass-produced attritable platforms.
Securing supply chains for strategic minerals and access to key subcomponents / GFE (e.g. crypto).
Leveraging systems and capabilities from both the traditional and non-traditional defense industrial base.
The ability to harness AI and autonomy for mission collaboration as well as supply chain transparency and deliver rapid updates on a continual basis.
Ensuring wartime surge capacity through diversification of production sources along with friend-shoring some production capacity forward.
Align with allies for co-design, co-production, and exercises.
Key Objectives: Deterrence Through Industrial Readiness
Conventional deterrence in the Indo-Pacific cannot rest solely on exquisite platforms or resources already in theater. It requires a dynamic, resilient, and scalable defense industrial base—one that can:
Rapidly produce defensive and asymmetric capabilities at scale.
Provide strategic and tactical decision advantage with AI and autonomy.
Sustain U.S. and allied forces for prolonged combat in contested environments.
We need the U.S. industrial base to pivot to a wartime footing to deter war.
Mass Production of Attritable Systems: Quantity as Quality
China’s advantage in force size and mass production demands a counter strategy of affordable, scalable, and attritable systems. Small, autonomous drones designed for high-risk scouting, jamming, and precision strikes, extend the reach of larger manned and unmanned platforms or provide mass around Taiwan. Similarly, UUVs enhance undersea deterrence with persistent ISR and mine-laying capabilities. Mobile missile launchers and one-way attack drones are also critical.
Scale programs to field thousands of attritable unmanned and autonomous systems, with funding redirected from RDT&E to procurement. Billion-dollar production contracts incentivize industry to fund, develop, and iterate on these systems for the DoD to acquire the best of breed from multiple vendors.
Incentivize non-traditional defense companies to mass-produce commercially driven solutions, leveraging their agility to more rapidly develop and produce,
Streamline policy and regulatory hurdles to integrate dual-use technologies faster.
Outputs: A proliferated, resilient force of lower-cost, highly capable but attritable platforms that can overwhelm adversaries through sheer numbers and adaptability, critical for denying China control of the battlespace. These are to complement, not replace the exquisite major weapon systems of B-21, Columbia and Virginia subs, Missile Defense Systems, and F-35s.
Resilient Supply Chains and Critical Minerals: Securing the Foundation
The U.S. defense industrial base is vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, with over 40% of semiconductors and critical minerals like gallium and germanium sourced from China. China’s export bans on these materials underscore the urgency of reshoring and friend-shoring. Domestic discoveries show promise but require years to scale.
Scale DLA’s National Defense Stockpile of critical minerals to buffer against export restrictions, paired with investments in advanced recycling and mining technologies.
Expand initiatives like the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience to preposition resources with allies like Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Use AI powered platforms for supply chain illumination to identify and mitigate risks from adversarial suppliers, as seen in the F-35’s temporary halt in 2022 due to Chinese-sourced cobalt.
Continue to leverage the Defense Production Act, loan guarantees, and targeted subsidies to reduce dependence on Chinese and vulnerable global chokepoints.
Outputs: A secure, diversified supply chain ensuring uninterrupted production of critical components (like solid rocket motors and chips), reducing vulnerabilities in a Taiwan conflict scenario.
Aligning Traditional and Non-Traditional Defense Companies: A Unified Ecosystem
Traditional primes bring deep expertise, regulatory expertise and infrastructure, while non-traditional defense tech firms offer agility, novel approaches, and cutting-edge technology. The divide between these sectors must be bridged to maximize innovation. Non-traditional solutions are already proving their value for military and civilian applications. We need all companies contributing to deterrence and delivery.
Acquisition executives and program managers incentivize collaboration between the two in industry days and solicitations.
Drive more Modular Open Systems Approach (MOSA) and cross-vendor integration in future DoD solicitations to foster prime/non-traditional teaming.
Expand DIU initiatives to vet and scale dual-use technologies with continued funding for acquiring novel capabilities. Scale use of their Commercial Solutions Opening (CSOs) and Other Transactions (OTs) for rapid, flexible, and simpler ways to contract with industry.
Reform contracting to reduce barriers (e.g., the ongoing Revolutionary FAR Overhaul and DFARS) that deter commercial firms from entering and competing in the defense market.
Outputs: A collaborative DIB that leverages primes’ scale and non-traditionals’ speed, delivering innovative hardware and software solutions at pace.
AI and Autonomy: Asymmetric Advantage in the Indo-Pacific
China’s pursuit of “intelligentized warfare” with AI-driven swarms and unmanned systems demands a U.S. counter. AI-enabled platforms with onboard target classification reduce bandwidth needs and enhances persistent ISR in the Indo-Pacific. The PLA’s focus on autonomous systems for swarm attacks and cognitive control operations highlights the stakes.
Invest in AI labs with access to operational data, skilled researchers, and consistent funding to tailor AI advances from the commercial to support military applications - and outpace China’s secretive AI advancements.
Prioritize low-bandwidth collaborative autonomy for manned-unmanned teaming, enabling resilient massed operations in contested environments.
Deepen collaboration with allies like the Quad (U.S., Japan, Australia, India) to integrate disparate autonomous systems into joint operations.
Outputs: AI and autonomy act as force multipliers, enabling faster decision-making, reduced human risk, and dominance in complex, high-tempo Indo-Pacific operations.
Surge, Repair, and Replenish in Wartime: Sustaining the Fight
War games estimate the U.S. could expend 5,000+ long-range missiles in the first weeks of a Taiwan conflict, far exceeding current stockpiles. Production of munitions like Tomahawks and LRASMs takes over 20 months, and surge capacity is limited by consolidated supply chains.
Adopt option contract models, paying premiums for peacetime orders with options to scale rapidly during conflict.
Leverage blockchain technology (like Simba Chain’s current efforts) to enable rapid smart contracts across an ecosystem of suppliers when needed.
Preposition stockpiles, modular sustainment kits, and invest in flexible and additive manufacturing to enable rapid replenishment of munitions and spare parts.
Enhance repair capabilities through co-investment with allies to maintain platforms like F-35s and MQ-9Bs in theater.
Bolster surge capacity for replenishment during conflict—not just manufacturing capacity, but repair, refit, and reconstitution. This includes scaling West-coast shipbuilding capacity.
Outputs: A DIB capable of surging production, repairing assets, and replenishing stockpiles to sustain prolonged operations, ensuring deterrence through endurance.
Ally Alignment: Co-Design, Co-Production, and Exercises
Allies like Australia, Japan, and South Korea bring critical capabilities and resources (e.g., Australia’s lithium). The AUKUS pact and Quad Space Act are models for deeper integration. Co-production with Europe and Israel on missile defense and icebreakers further strengthens collective deterrence.
Expand AUKUS-style arrangements to include Taiwan and the Philippines for co-production of munitions and drones.
Encourage partnerships between leading U.S. companies and “national champion” companies to build enduring arrangements that can adapt over time.
Streamline FMS and ITAR processes to accelerate technology sharing with Indo-Pacific allies.
Share more testing resources to validate systems in different environments and using different battle management functionality.
Leverage allied innovation ecosystems (e.g., Japan’s AI research) for joint R&D and production.
Scale operational exercises across the Indo-Pacific like Valiant Shield, Keen Edge, Freedom Shield, and RIMPAC with our allies to demonstrate interoperability of systems, operations, and industrial bases. Continue to iterate on systems, services, and tactics with our allies based on insights learned.
Outputs: A networked allied DIB that amplifies production capacity, shares technological advancements, and ensures interoperability for coalition operations.
Complementary Efforts
Accelerate Exquisite Major Weapon Systems
Major defense platforms remain the backbone of deterrence, projecting power and signaling resolve. Systems like the F-35, Columbia and Virginia-class submarines, and B-21 stealth bombers provide unmatched capabilities in air, sea, and undersea domains.
The Air Force’s recent test of a 500-pound Quicksink anti-ship munition from a B-2 demonstrates scalable precision lethality against naval threats in contested waters like the Taiwan Strait.
Accelerate production and integration of next-generation platforms like the B-21, prioritizing technical maturity and industrial capacity.
Reform acquisition, requirements, and budget processes to accelerate capability deliveries and enable flexibility to pivot to focus investments on maximizing operational impact.
Clear the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) Backlog
Taiwan should be at the front of the FMS line and clear the $19B backlog of systems that were approved but not delivered.
Expanding FMS to allies like Japan and Australia to enable greater regional strength with American systems to enable greater interoperability, strengthen American defense companies’ sales, and economies of scale.
Former Rep. Mike Gallagher introduced the Funding Pacific Readiness and Enhancing Stockpiles (FIRES) Act which would reroute ~$10-13B annually canceled funds into a new account, the FIRES Fund.
The fund could be for munition production, expanded capacity, facilities, and transport; shipbuilding and facilities, and expeditionary air base infrastructure, arming and refueling sites, and pre-positioning military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific theater.
The Path Forward
The Deterrence Industrial Base is not a luxury—it’s a necessity. China’s rehearsals for a Taiwan invasion, as noted by ADM Samuel Paparo, INDOPACOM Commander demand urgent action. The U.S. and its allies must integrate exquisite and attritable systems, secure supply chains, unite traditional and non-traditional companies, harness AI and autonomy, build wartime surge capacity, and align with allies. This ecosystem of factories, codebases, and strategic partnerships will signal to China that any aggression will face a united, resilient, and overwhelming response.
The time for half-measures is over. The DoD, Congress, and industry must act with wartime urgency to revitalize the DIB, leveraging regulatory reform, innovative contracting, and allied partnerships to deter conflict and secure the Indo-Pacific.
The next war may begin with a blockade, a cyberattack, or a swarm over the strait. The best outcome is the one where it never begins at all, because our industrial base made it unmistakably clear: We are ready.
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Thank you for powerful post!
Thank you for powerful post!